EC – EU Agricultural Markets Autumn, 2023

The introduction to the EC's outlook on EU agricultural markets in Autumn 2023 explains that the summer weather conditions have had a mixed impact on the market. Hot and dry conditions and floods have affected yields of certain crops, while excess rainfall has helped grassland recover. However, the rainfall has also caused delays to harvest, the development of pests and diseases, and has negatively impacted the quality of some products. Despite these challenges, there are signs of positive market prospects as input costs continue to decline. This has led to a reduction in the EU farmer price index, which could potentially bring some relief to domestic food demand. However, adverse weather conditions and uncertainties in Ukraine could still pose upward risks for commodity and agricultural prices. EU exports in certain agricultural commodities have been supported by more competitive prices, and this is expected to continue in 2024 due to a relatively low EUR to USD exchange rate. Meanwhile, the EU market remains attractive for imports. The EU economy has been slightly revised downwards compared to the Summer 2023 outlook, with subdued growth and a tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. This weaker growth is expected to extend into 2024.