IFA - Medium Term Outlook Report 2022-2026

The Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2022 - 2026 report provides valuable insights into the fertilizer industry's future, focusing on the demand, supply, and market trends of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. The report presents three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and middle ground, which capture the range of realistic expectations for fertilizer application and crop yields in the next 2-5 years. In the optimistic scenario, there is a partial recovery of exports, improved affordability, and minimal yield impact. This suggests a more positive outcome for fertilizer application and crop yields. On the other hand, the pessimistic scenario indicates a deterioration of the drivers behind farmers applying fertilizer in close to their normal volumes in 2022 and beyond. This scenario is characterized by further deterioration of supply, worsening affordability, and chronic shortages. The middle ground scenario reflects pockets of availability and an affordability crisis, with trade re-routing being a key factor. This scenario suggests that there may be some areas where fertilizers are available, but overall affordability and trade routes may be impacted. The report also highlights the major suppliers to the global nitrogen and potash trade, with Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine playing significant roles. It provides a breakdown of their respective shares in global trade for ammonia, urea, AN, phosphate rock, MAP, DAP, and potash. Overall, the report offers valuable insights into the medium-term outlook for the fertilizer industry, including potential challenges and opportunities such as trade re-routing, affordability, and chronic shortages. It is authored by Laura Cross, Director, and Armelle Gruère, Program Manager - Demand, with contributions from other experts in the field.