USDA – Grain. World Markets and Trades, Feb 2025

The report by USDA "Grain. World Markets and Trades" explores declining corn imports in China amid economic and policy shifts affecting the 2024/25 market year. China's forecast for corn imports in 2024/25 is reduced by 3 million tons to 10 million tons, representing a dramatic drop from 23.4 million tons in 2023/24, marking the lowest volume since 2019/20. This decline is primarily driven by policy interventions aimed at supporting domestic corn prices amid weak consumption. Falling corn prices reflect reduced demand growth, particularly from the livestock sector, as consumer spending weakens. The National Bureau of Statistics reports significant declines in corn market prices since December 2023. Weaker income growth and declining property values have further curtailed disposable incomes, affecting meat consumption and resulting in lower beef and pork prices. As a result, China's live cattle and swine inventories are projected to decline. Despite supply-side measures to limit imports and support domestic prices, structural issues persist, potentially reducing China's role in global corn trade through 2024/25.