USDA - World Agricultural Production, Aug 23

The report provides an update on European Union wheat production for MY 2023/2024. Despite sporadic drought conditions, the estimated wheat production is up from last year and above the 5-year average. The early season satellite imagery analysis and assessment of critical crop stages of planting, crop development, and early flowering stages indicated that production prospects were favorable. Although a mild winter prevented winterkill damage across the EU, it increased pest pressures during spring and summer. A cool spring delayed the crop stages, prolonging the growth cycle and delaying harvest. Winter grains area was maximized due to higher fertilizer costs and successive crop failures for corn in several countries. The biggest production revisions include a decrease in Spain of 1.1 mmt to 3.5 mmt, a decrease in Lithuania of 0.4 mmt to 4.0 mmt, and a 0.3 mmt total reduction for Romania to 10.2 mmt. The report also includes a table that presents a record of the August projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.2 percent. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of European Union wheat production and the factors that are impacting it.