USDA – World Agricultural Production, Nov 2023

According to the USDA's November 2023 report, rice production in Indonesia for the marketing year 2023/24 is projected to be 33.5 million metric tons, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous month and 1 percent from the previous year. The harvested area is expected to be 11.3 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month and 2 percent from last year. The yield is forecasted to be 4.67 tons per hectare, slightly lower than last month but 1 percent higher than last year. In Indonesia, rice cultivation occurs in three different cycles, with the first one happening during the wet season and accounting for around 45 percent of the total rice crop. This is followed by two cycles during the dry season. The main crop, which is cultivated from October to December, is the largest and is harvested from February to April. It is grown in both lowland and upland areas, with irrigation being the main source of water for lowland cultivation. However, seasonal rains are also essential for reservoir recharge. The report suggests that rice area is expected to decrease in the 2023/24 marketing year due to ongoing dryness caused by the delayed onset of the monsoon, particularly in the main rice-producing islands of Java and parts of southern Sumatra. Satellite imagery in central Java has shown delays in rice planting compared to the previous year. Cumulative rainfall has been below normal since mid-August, preventing farmers from starting rice cultivation on time. Consequently, subsistence farmers in upland rice-growing regions, who rely on rainfall as their primary water source, will likely switch to planting less water-intensive crops like corn.