Goldman Sachs – Humanoid Robot, Jan 2024

Goldman Sachs has increased their forecast for the global humanoid robot market from $6bn to $38bn by 2035, based on a 4-fold increase in shipments to 1.4mn units. They anticipate that these robots will cover 10%-15% of hazardous, dangerous, and auto manufacturing roles. Key drivers of this forecast change include AI acceleration, technological breakthroughs, and increased capital expenditure. Technological advancements such as end-to-end AI and multi-modal AI algorithms have led to faster product iterations and improved capabilities of robots, although the possibility of a general-purpose AI robot remains uncertain. The cost of components for high-spec robots has decreased by 40% to $150k per unit, making factory and consumer applications more viable at an accelerated timeline. Goldman Sachs believes that the demand for humanoid robots will continue to grow, with potential applications in addressing manufacturing labor shortages and providing care for households and the elderly. National policies supporting the use of robots for dangerous jobs could further drive demand, potentially reaching 1.1mn-3.5mn units globally.