AEC - The State of African Energy 2023

The EU's ban on Russian oil in 2022 is expected to remove 1.3 million bpd of oil from the European market, resulting in a tight market and high Brent crude oil prices. However, thanks to supply growth from the US and the Middle East, global oil supply is expected to remain unchanged. Africa's gas and LNG flow will be driven by Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt, with natural gas supply remaining unchanged from previous forecasts. Although there's an opportunity for natural gas exports to grow to undersupplied Europe and global LNG markets, this will require significant greenfield spending. Cumulative capital expenditure spending has increased by about US $130 billion from 2022-2025, but no substantial growth in near-term African CAPEX spending is predicted compared to previous forecasts.