EIA – International Energy Outlook, 2023

The International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023) provides insights into long-term energy trends worldwide until 2050. It takes into account new energy policies, the transition to zero-carbon technologies, energy security concerns, and economic and population growth since the last IEO in 2021. The projections highlight that global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase through 2050 in all cases except the Low Economic Growth case. This is mainly due to population growth, regional economic shifts towards manufacturing, and increased energy consumption as living standards improve. China is projected to remain the primary source of energy-related CO2 emissions, although its share of total global CO2 emissions will decline. India and the Other Asia-Pacific region are expected to become the second and third highest emitters of energy-related CO2 emissions by 2050. Economic and population growth are driving the increase in emissions, with global GDP projected to more than double by 2050 in all cases, except the Low Economic Growth case. Energy consumption in the industrial and transportation sectors is expected to grow, with the Asia-Pacific region experiencing faster GDP growth and declining population growth in China. The intensity of energy-related CO2 emissions is projected to decrease through 2050 due to a transition towards lower-carbon energy sources, although these trends could be offset by shifts towards increased manufacturing in certain regions. In terms of electricity generation, a shift to renewables is driven by regional resources, technology costs, and policies. Zero-carbon technologies will primarily meet the growing electricity demand, with coal, natural gas, and petroleum liquids decreasing as a share of the installed global generating capacity. Electric vehicles are projected to account for a significant portion of global new vehicle sales by 2050, with China and Western Europe leading in EV sales. The global fleet of internal combustion engine vehicles is expected to peak between 2027 and 2033 due to increasing EV adoption.