EIA – Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2024

Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas Gulf Coast after the completion of the modeling and analysis for the Short-Term Energy Outlook in July 2024. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will monitor the effects of the hurricane on critical energy infrastructure and provide updates in future reports. In terms of crude oil prices, Brent crude oil is forecasted to average $89 per barrel in the second half of 2024, with a decrease in global oil inventories due to OPEC+ production cuts. Gasoline expenditures are expected to decrease for U.S. households in 2024 and 2025 due to falling prices and increased vehicle efficiency. Natural gas prices are forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024, with production curtailment leading to stable production levels. Natural gas inventories are expected to end the injection season in October above the five-year average. Electricity generation in the U.S. is projected to increase in both the first and second halves of 2024, with a significant growth in solar power generation. The shift in fossil fuel generation is expected to result in more coal generation and less natural gas generation compared to previous forecasts.