EIA – Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2024

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook for May 2024 predicts that global oil prices will remain near $90 per barrel due to production cuts by OPEC+ and geopolitical risks, before falling to an average of $85/b in 2025. U.S. retail gasoline prices are forecasted to average around $3.70 per gallon from April to September, with refinery operations posing uncertainty. Natural gas production in the U.S. is expected to decrease by 2% in the second quarter of 2024 but rebound by 2% in 2025. Electricity generation will see growth mainly from solar energy, with total generation increasing by 3% in 2024. Revised estimates suggest a 4% increase in U.S. coal exports in 2024, with production expected to decline by 14%, less than previously forecasted, due to higher export demand.