Eurofer – Economic and steel market outlook, 2023-2024

The Eurofer report suggests that the war in Ukraine and the overall economic outlook have had severe consequences on the steel market, leading to a decrease in apparent steel consumption in 2023. The forecast predicts a contraction of -5.2% in consumption, marking the fourth recession in the last five years. However, there is hope for recovery in 2024, with an estimated growth rate of +7.6%. In the EU steel market, apparent steel consumption has been declining for several quarters, with a drop of -7.6% in the second quarter of 2023. This downturn began in 2022 due to war-related disruptions, rising energy prices, production costs, and inflation. Domestic deliveries have also been affected, declining for the fifth consecutive time in the second quarter of 2023. Similarly, imports into the EU have decreased, reflecting weak demand conditions. Despite these challenges, the steel-using sectors in the EU have shown unexpected resilience. The Steel Weighted Industrial Production index has continued to grow, with a +0.8% increase in the second quarter of 2023. Overall, the report highlights the negative impact of ongoing conflicts, uncertainty, and economic factors on the steel market, but also points towards potential recovery in the future.