EUROFER – Economic and steel market outlook 2024-2025

The steel market in Europe has continued to experience a negative trend in the first half of 2023, with the situation becoming more severe. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the deteriorating economic outlook have had severe consequences on apparent steel consumption. This downward trend is projected to continue in 2023, with a forecasted contraction of -6.3% compared to the previous outlook of -5.2%. This would mark the fourth annual recession in the last five years. The rebound anticipated for 2024 is also expected to be lower than previously estimated, with a projected recovery rate of +5.6% instead of +7.6%. In the third quarter of 2023, apparent steel consumption in the EU dropped for the sixth consecutive quarter, reaching its third lowest level since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. The decline in consumption began in 2022 due to war-related disruptions, increases in energy prices, and production costs. The negative cycle is expected to persist until at least the fourth quarter of 2023 due to global economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and manufacturing weakness. Domestic deliveries of steel in the EU have decreased for the sixth consecutive time in the third quarter of 2023, although at a slower pace than in the previous quarter. Import levels into the EU have remained unchanged in the same period after a decrease in the preceding quarter.