Goldman Sachs - Top Projects 2023

This report is the 20th edition of an annual review of top assets in global oil and gas production. It highlights five key themes of change in the industry: investment growth, production growth, profitability, shrinking reserves, and a steepening cost curve. The authors note that oil and gas activity has declined at a compounded 7% from 2014 to 2021, but they expect it to return to 9% pa growth, with LNG and deepwater compounding at +24/13% pa respectively over the next three years. The report also notes that the industry has been under-investing since 2014, with investments in traditional energy (oil, gas upstream) falling 50% in 2020 from the peak and driving an 18% reduction in global primary energy investments, from $1.3 trillion in 2014 to $1 trillion in 2020. However, the authors project primary energy capex to grow 48% by 2027 to $1.9 trillion. Despite higher investment, production growth remains elusive, with non-OPEC ex-shale expected to remain broadly flat in the coming years and shale to slow down and peak by 2026-27, leading to a call on OPEC of 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025. The report includes a disclosure appendix certifying that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect the authors' personal views.