IATA – Europe’s Jet Fuel Supply Outlook

The report analyzes the outlook for jet fuel supply in Europe, focusing on the impact of energy transition policies, refinery closures, and geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil.

Europe is transitioning away from fossil fuels toward bioenergy and renewables, leading to refinery closures and reduced domestic refining capacity. Refining capacity in Europe is expected to decline significantly by 2050, with a loss of over 5 million barrels per day from the current 13 million bpd. Jet fuel demand is projected to grow over the next decade, making supply security critical. The reduction in domestic refining capacity increases Europe's reliance on imports, complicating supply chains. Recent sanctions on Russian oil by the EU, UK, and US exacerbate supply vulnerabilities by disrupting traditional supply routes and limiting access to affordable feedstock. The aviation sector is particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on fossil-based jet fuel and lack of scalable alternatives in the near term.