IEA – Indian Oil Market, Outlook to 2030

The Indian oil market is expected to see significant growth by 2030 due to the country's healthy economic expansion, population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. As China's economy becomes less energy-intensive, India will become the world's largest source of oil demand growth in the next decade. This shift in the global oil market will have implications for India's oil trade balances, climate ambitions, and energy security goals. The report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) explores how India's role in the global oil market may evolve over the next decade. It analyzes investment plans in the refining and petrochemical industry and assesses their impact on India's crude and product net trade. The report also examines energy transition trends and how they could affect oil demand in different sectors, as well as the implications for India's energy security. The forecast for India's oil demand in 2030 is lower than previously projected in the Stated Policies Scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2023. However, it is higher than the forecast in the Announced Pledges Scenario, which outlines a pathway for countries to meet their energy and climate goals. India has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2070. The report emphasizes the need for India to accelerate its energy sector's transition to achieve its national energy and climate goals, as well as the target set in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. This analysis highlights the ongoing structural changes in India's energy sector and the importance of aligning with international climate goals.