IEEFA – Global LNG Outlook 2024-2028, Apr 2024

The report by the IEEFA Global LNG Outlook for 2024-2028 highlights the combination of lackluster demand growth and a surge in new export capacity that is projected to lead to oversupply in the global LNG market within the next two years. Specifically, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, which account for more than half of the world's LNG demand, experienced a decline in imports in 2023 and are expected to continue falling through 2030. Emerging Asian markets also face challenges in LNG demand growth due to various economic, political, financial, and logistical obstacles. The report predicts that global LNG supply capacity will exceed demand scenarios outlined by the International Energy Agency through 2050. Despite a temporary increase in European LNG imports due to declining Russian gas supplies, overall global LNG prices have decreased due to falling demand from developed economies. The outlook for LNG demand in different regions varies, with Japan, South Korea, and Europe projected to see declines, while Southeast Asia, South Asia, and China may experience fluctuating levels of import growth influenced by factors such as alternative energy sources, fiscal challenges, and domestic energy policies.