IEF – Comparative Analysis, Apr 2024

In April 2024, oil prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical risks and tightening market fundamentals. Brent crude prices have increased by nearly 20% since the beginning of the year, exceeding $90 per barrel for the first time since October. Global onshore inventories fell for a seventh consecutive month to their lowest level since 2016, driven by supply management from OPEC+ and strong demand. US inventories have drawn significantly in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting a shift from previous builds. Geopolitical tensions, including drone attacks on Russian refineries and increased hostilities in the Middle East, have further boosted oil prices. Speculative activity has also increased, with a surge in bullish Brent call options trading. The Energy Information Administration predicts a global supply deficit of 0.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024 and 0.3 million barrels per day for the year.