IEF – Comparative Analysis, Aug 2024

The August 2024 update on the International Energy Forum (IEF) Comparative Analysis reports a slight decrease in divergence in short-term global oil consumption forecasts compared to the previous month. OPEC has revised its global demand growth downward by 0.1 mb/d to 2.1 mb/d for 2024, while the IEA and EIA have lower forecasts. OPEC's projections for 2025 remain at 1.8 mb/d, while the EIA has reduced its estimate to 1.6 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth forecasts vary among the organizations, with OPEC projecting 1.3 mb/d. Economic growth forecasts for 2025 from the OECD, IMF, and World Bank show disparities, impacting oil demand. Uncertainty in economic growth and oil demand is highlighted, with oil markets facing volatility due to various factors like economic uncertainties, military conflicts, stock market corrections, and political outcomes. The potential impact of advancements in clean technologies and efficiency improvements on oil demand trends is also mentioned. Risks and uncertainty in the oil market prevail, as consensus can easily shift.