IEF – Comparative Analysis, Dec 2023

The International Energy Forum (IEF) has released a comparative analysis for December 2023. OPEC+ announced deeper production cuts for the first quarter of 2024, including an extension of Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut. Despite this, oil prices have fallen due to concerns about the global economy and negative sentiment among investors. Portfolio investors have become increasingly bearish, with money managers selling petroleum in recent weeks. However, China's demand for oil continues to grow, defying weak economic indicators. On the supply side, the US, Brazil, and Guyana have seen record production levels. The IEA, EIA, and OPEC have steadily revised their forecasts for US supply growth, with estimates now predicting nearly 1.5 mb/d in growth. Looking ahead to 2024, the IEA, EIA, and OPEC have made forecasts regarding global demand and non-OPEC supply growth. OPEC's forecast shows a more robust demand growth compared to the others, particularly in the Middle East. The "call on OPEC," which indicates the level of supply needed from OPEC to meet demand, varies between 27.8 mb/d and 29.9 mb/d for 2024. OPEC's balance suggests a 2 mb/d supply deficit in 2024 if OPEC production remains at November levels.