IEF – Comparative Analysis, July 2024

The projections for global oil consumption in the near future are still uncertain, with varying forecasts from OPEC, IEA, and EIA. OPEC predicts a growth of 2.2 mb/d in 2024, while IEA and EIA forecast lower growth rates. Non-DoC oil supply is expected to increase, driven by countries like the US, Brazil, and Canada. Policies such as tariffs on electric vehicle imports may impact oil demand trajectories. Risks to global energy security remain high due to conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The summary of 2023-2025 balances shows a significant difference in demand forecasts between the organizations, with OPEC maintaining its predictions while EIA and IEA make adjustments to their forecasts for both 2024 and 2025. OPEC's global demand growth forecast remains unchanged, while EIA increases its forecast for 2025. IEA revises down its non-OECD demand growth forecasts for both years.