IEF – Comparative Analysis, September 2024

In September 2024, OPEC has slightly reduced its global demand growth projection to 2 mb/d for 2024, which is higher than estimates by the IEA and EIA. The IEA and EIA have also adjusted their demand growth forecasts for 2024, with the IEA maintaining its projections. OPEC has revised down its 2025 demand growth forecast by 40 tb/d, with a divergence of 0.7 mb/d in global demand growth forecasts among the agencies. On the supply side, OPEC and the EIA have kept their non-DoC supply growth projections unchanged for 2024 and 2025, while the IEA has made a downward revision for 2025. There is a discrepancy in the short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts among the organizations. Challenges in the volatile market include OPEC+ alliance members delaying a planned increase in oil production to maintain market stability. Recent disruptions in Libya have also impacted global energy balance. The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for October 2nd, followed by a full OPEC+ group meeting on December 1st.