IEF – Upstream Oil Gas Investment Outlook, June 2024

The annual upstream investment in the oil and gas industry needs to increase by $135 billion to reach a total of $738 billion by 2030 to meet demand. This estimate for 2030 is 15% higher than the previous assessment and 41% higher than two years ago due to rising costs and increased demand. A total of $4.3 trillion will be required between 2025 and 2030, despite slowing demand growth. In 2023, oil and gas annual upstream capital expenditures increased by $63 billion and are expected to rise by another $26 billion in 2024, exceeding $600 billion for the first time in a decade. More than a third of this spending will come from North America, but Latin America is expected to be the largest source of incremental capex growth in 2024. The Americas will account for over 60% of the increase in upstream capex by 2030, with North America leading the growth. Latin America will also play a significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, especially in conventional crude, with planned expansions in Brazil and Guyana. By 2030, 2.2 million barrels per day in new or expanded conventional projects are expected to be producing in Latin America, representing a substantial portion of globally sanctioned projects.