IRENA – Critical Materials: Batteries for Electric Vehicles, 2024

IRENA's goal is for electric vehicles (EVs) to dominate passenger vehicle sales by 2030 in order to advance the energy transition. To achieve this, the global stock of passenger EVs must grow to 359 million by 2030, a significant increase from the current 44 million in 2023. This growth requires a five-fold increase in annual EV battery production capacity between 2023 and 2030. Despite planned battery production capacity exceeding anticipated demand, efforts are needed to secure raw materials like graphite, lithium, cobalt, copper, phosphorous, manganese, and nickel. Demand for these materials will rise due to increasing EV sales, but innovations are reducing the need for materials like cobalt and nickel. The availability of critical materials like lithium, estimated to have ample supply, is crucial for the long-term decarbonization of road transport. IRENA's supply-demand analysis explores potential bottlenecks by 2030, considering three battery chemistry scenarios. Sustainable expansion of material supply chains, coupled with innovation in battery technologies, will be key to meeting the growing demand for EV battery materials and achieving a 1.5°C decarbonization pathway. However, uncertainties in supply and demand scenarios could result in potential shortages of critical materials, highlighting the importance of monitoring market dynamics and technological advancements.