JPMorgan - Oil 2030

The Global Commodities Research report by JPMorgan provides an in-depth analysis of the oil industry and its future prospects. The report highlights the positive impact of efficiency policies on oil demand, with Americans collectively traveling more last year than in 2021 and driving a similar amount of miles as in 2019, yet using 6% less gasoline. The report suggests that this is due to substantial efficiency improvements, with the real-world efficiency of new vehicles sold in the US rising to 25.4 miles per gallon in 2021, up from 19.3 in 2004.  The report also predicts growth in petrochemicals and air travel, with oil demand growth increasingly driven by petrochemicals complex and air travel at the expense of traditional oil products. Chemical feedstocks alone will account for 2.4 mbd or about 33% of overall demand gains during the forecast period, driven by new liquids-based facilities concentrated in China. The report suggests that the shift towards petrochemicals and air travel will have implications for the oil industry, and that the projected supply and demand profiles for oil will impact global energy markets.  Finally, the report highlights some of the key challenges facing new oil projects in the coming years, including the need for significant investment in new technologies and infrastructure, as well as the need to navigate complex regulatory environments. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive overview of the oil industry and its future prospects, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.