KAPSARC – Oil Market Outlook, 4Q 2024

This quarter's oil market outlook highlights include a slight decline in quarter-on-quarter oil demand, following last quarter's growth. While there were significant gains and losses in different regions and countries, they largely balanced out. OECD countries saw a muted growth in demand, with Asia experiencing a seasonal increase offset by declines in Europe. Non-OECD countries are expected to witness a decline, with developing Asian countries showing growth. On the supply side, a decline is expected in Q4, with most coming from non-OPEC+ members. Production declines are spread throughout producing countries and regions, with the United States and Russia leading declines. Despite stagnating demand, supply declines mean that balances are projected to continue trending downwards, with a deficit expected this quarter. Economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil have dampened market expectations, but there are signs of improvement in the global economy, particularly in Europe and the Middle East.