KAPSARC – The Rising Cost of Cooling: Regional Energy Futures in a Warming Saudi Arabia

The main theme of the report is the analysis of the impact of climate warming on the demand for cooling in the residential sector of Saudi Arabia.

The study covers four regions of the country and forecasts changes up to 2060. Key findings include: An increase in average temperature by 1°C can increase electricity consumption for cooling by 12.9% in the Western region, 10.3% in the Southern, 8.3% in the Central, and 4.8% in the Eastern region. In a high emissions scenario (SSP5), electricity consumption for cooling by 2060 could be 20 TWh higher than in the baseline scenario (SSP2). The sustainable development scenario (SSP1) could reduce consumption by 8 TWh. SSP1 also leads to the lowest long-term system costs, saving $9.41 billion compared to the baseline scenario (SSP2) over the period 2024-2060.