McKinsey – Global Energy Perspective, 2023

The war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis have brought important changes to the energy conversation, with a focus on energy security, affordability, industrial competitiveness, and sustainability. The future of the energy transition is uncertain, with variables such as cost, technological progress, and policy developments influencing different scenarios, particularly for fossil fuels. However, achieving the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C is becoming increasingly challenging. Progress is being made towards a net-zero future, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and renewable energy. Solar and wind power are expected to make up the largest share of the global energy mix by 2040, but substantial investments will be needed to support renewable energy expansion and ensure sufficient fossil fuel supply. Total energy investments are projected to increase from 1.5 trillion USD in 2021 to between 2 and 3.2 trillion in 2040, while remaining relatively stable as a proportion of GDP. However, the ability of supply chains to keep up with the pace of the energy transition is a critical question, as materials shortages, production bottlenecks, and limited land availability pose risks that can potentially slow down progress. The Global Energy Perspective 2023 by McKinsey explores these important shifts in the energy landscape and provides insights into the long-term trends that will shape future energy systems.