McKinsey - The future of commodity trading

The commodity trading industry has been on the rise in the past five years, and its future looks promising. The ongoing energy transition will have a significant impact on the industry by increasing structural volatility, opening up new trade flows, and redefining the concept of commodities. These changes will create opportunities and challenges for both new and established players. McKinsey explores the trends and presents their perspective on three business models that could develop over time. The value pools of commodity trading have almost doubled from $27 billion in 2018 to an estimated $52 billion in EBIT in 2021, with most of the growth coming from oil trading. Power and gas trading follow closely behind, with a rise from $7 billion to $13 billion. The industry is expected to continue growing and attract new competitors.