OIES – Decarbonisation in Europe: Modelling Economic Feasibility and the Glidepath for Gas

The main theme of the report is modeling various decarbonisation scenarios in Europe until 2050, focusing on economic feasibility and the role of gas.

Key findings include: A scenario aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 with a front-loaded effort by 2040 results in extremely high marginal abatement costs. A linear path to net-zero significantly reduces these costs and implies the second-deepest reduction in gas demand. Scenarios not reaching net-zero by 2050 further reduce costs and maintain a more significant role for gas in the energy mix for a longer period. The policy context includes the European Commission's proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.