OIES – Dubai, We Have a Problem: Murban and Middle East Crude Pricing

The main theme of the document is related to the dynamics of oil pricing in East Asia, particularly in the context of Murban oil and other Middle Eastern grades.

Key findings include the volatility of spreads between light and heavy crude due to US sanctions, tariffs, changes in Middle Eastern refinery configurations, and OPEC+ decisions. There is an increase in the availability of oil on the spot market and the growing importance of arbitrage flows. The document also highlights the increase in destination-free oil used to support futures contracts and the rise in derivative trading volumes, reflecting demand for volatility management and speculative activity. Additionally, there is a diversity of official price formulas (OSP) for Middle Eastern oil suppliers.