OIES – The Inflection Point: Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues in 2025

This report analyzes Russia’s oil and gas fiscal state take and federal budget revenues through to the end of 2025.

It highlights a significant decline in oil and gas revenues in 2025 offset by growth in other tax revenues, the mitigating effect of an appreciating ruble, and the dynamics of federal budget revenues and expenditures. The share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget is projected to decline to the lowest level in twenty years, with most taxes based on production volume rather than profitability, providing some budget protection amid sanctions and higher costs.