OPEC – MOMR, September 2024

In September 2024, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by 7.1% to average $78.41/b, with the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and DME Oman front-month contracts also experiencing declines. Money managers closed long positions in the ICE Brent market. The world economic growth forecast for 2024 was revised slightly upwards to 3%, with varying forecasts for different regions including the US, Japan, Eurozone, China, India, Brazil, and Russia. World oil demand growth for 2024 was revised slightly down to 2.0 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is expected to drive growth in 2025. Non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to grow, with the main drivers being the US, Canada, and Brazil. Refinery margins declined in August across all regions, with global refinery intake increasing but expected to subside as refineries enter the maintenance season.