Oxford – Energy Transition Scenarios Impact on Natural Gas

The analysis of Oxford's energy transition scenarios indicates that global gas demand is not expected to peak before 2030, with different peak levels in various scenarios. The most optimistic scenario sees demand peaking around 2040 at 4,700 bcm, while other scenarios predict lower peak levels. By 2050, gas demand is projected to decrease significantly in all scenarios, with higher demand in the Net Zero with CCS scenario compared to the IEA NZE scenario. LNG trade is expected to peak around 2030 and decline in the following decades, particularly in the Declared Policies Scenario. The impact of these scenarios on LNG exporting regions varies, with North America, ASEAN, and Oceania being heavily impacted. Green hydrogen is still a niche product in some scenarios, with blue hydrogen being more dominant. The key takeaway is that the gas industry must invest heavily in CCS technology to sustain its role in a decarbonizing world, or face rapid decline as seen in the IEA NZE scenario.