Oxford – Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy, 2024

The report discusses the energy trilemma, which consists of security of supply, sustainability, and access to energy. It suggests that in recent years, the focus has been more on security of supply rather than sustainability. However, the key themes for 2024 indicate that security and sustainability are now interconnected and should be treated as a dilemma rather than a trilemma. The introduction highlights the importance of considering the price of energy and access to it when addressing the security and sustainability objectives. It emphasizes that trade-offs between these objectives have negative impacts on growth, competitiveness, public acceptability, sustainable development goals, and energy access. The introduction also discusses the shift towards decarbonization, electrification, and renewables in the energy transition. It acknowledges that progress has been made, but there are still challenges in scaling up these technologies to meet the global demand. It notes that hydrocarbon demand is still rising globally, with emerging Asian economies driving the majority of the growth. Additionally, it mentions the complexities in the fundamental picture of oil and gas markets, with uncertainties surrounding the long-term demand curve and changing trade flows. The introduction mentions the historic spike in gas prices due to the loss of Russian gas in Europe but highlights how the market resolved the deficit through LNG imports and storage management. It also discusses the resilience of the oil market to geopolitical and supply risks. Regarding the energy transition, the introduction stresses the need for governments and corporations to back up their targets and commitments with action. It discusses key elements of the transition such as offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon markets, noting the challenges and potential for growth in these areas. The report concludes by emphasizing the significant role of China in the global energy industry and the uncertainty it poses due to its regional and global foreign policies. It suggests that Beijing's foreign and energy policy will heavily influence the global energy landscape in 2024.