Oxford – Quarterly Gas Review, Apr 2024

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Quarterly Gas Market Review for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 describes a bearish period in the international gas market, with prices lower year-on-year despite a price rally driven by industry and geopolitical events in early Q4 2023. European gas prices fell during the winter months due to steady supply and weakening demand, leading to record pre-winter stock levels. Although European gas balances were deemed cautiously balanced before winter, price rallies before the season suggest a correct approach. The market remains tight despite weakening demand, with LNG playing a significant role in replacing Russian gas in Europe. The global LNG supply outlook for 2024 and 2025 is mostly stable, with some challenges from feedstock issues and domestic demand growth in key exporters. Political tensions and Western sanctions on Russian LNG are affecting supply, while Qatar's expansion plans offer some stability. The concentration of global LNG production in a few key hubs raises concerns about supply security.