S&P Global – Chemicals Industry Credit Outlook, 2025

The report by S&P Global "Chemicals Industry Credit Outlook 2025" explores the challenging credit landscape for the chemicals industry due to market dynamics and geopolitical factors. The outlook for petrochemicals remains weak due to additional supply, weak end-market demand, and rising natural gas prices. Trade disruptions are increasingly risky, with geopolitical conflicts, tariff threats, and potential U.S. port strikes threatening supply chains. Destocking has concluded, and restocking in 2025 could bolster demand. Key assumptions for 2025 include tough trading conditions for fertilizers with stagnant global demand but supportive pricing due to limited capacity and reduced Chinese exports. Global GDP is expected to slow to 3% from 3.3% in 2024, influenced by sluggish growth in the U.S. and China. Demand in certain end markets, such as automobiles, housing, construction, electronics, and agriculture, remains weak and disconnected from GDP growth. Risks include potential trade disruptions and weak end-market demand, which could hinder chemical demand and affect earnings growth expectations.