SW Tenet – Oil Market Report, Jun 2025

The main theme of the report is related to the analysis of the global oil market in the context of political and economic changes in the first quarter of 2025.

Key findings include President Trump's trade and tariff policies creating significant uncertainty in global economic growth forecasts and thus oil demand. The president's call for OPEC to lower oil prices and request for Saudi Arabia to invest in the US economy. The impact of low global oil prices on the US oil and gas industry, especially production in the Permian Basin. OPEC and other countries' policies lead to increased oil production volumes, creating a weak outlook for global oil prices in 2025-2026. The main factor putting pressure on oil price growth is related to security in the Middle East, particularly with Israel's threat to attack Iran. The oil and gas industry's response is to increase operational efficiency and review activities in the transition to carbon-neutral energy.