WGC – Gold Market Commentary, Mar 2024

In March 2024, gold prices rose by 8.1% to reach US$2,214/oz, driven by factors such as a flat US dollar and increased implied volatility. The Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) indicated that Risk and Momentum factors were behind the price increase, with strong inflows into gold ETFs and COMEX managed money futures net positions. Geopolitical tensions also played a role in the rally, along with concerns about stagflation risks and lower interest rates. The upcoming elections in India and a decreased wedding season are expected to lead to low market activity and potentially reduce demand from Indian consumers. Overall, the market outlook suggests that gold ETFs may have missed the rally and are now under-allocated, indicating potential opportunities for investors in the future.