World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2024

Heightened tensions in the Middle East are driving up prices for key commodities, such as oil and gold, while copper prices have also surged due to supply concerns and increased global industrial production. Overall, commodity prices are predicted to slightly decline in 2024 and 2025 but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Oil prices are expected to rise by 2% in 2024, while gold and copper prices are set to increase by 8% and 5% respectively. The persistent high commodity prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions, demand for metals related to clean energy transition, and China's industrial and infrastructure investments offsetting weaknesses in its property sector. Risks to price forecasts are tilted towards further increases, particularly due to potential conflicts in the Middle East. The World Bank expects commodity prices to stay above pre-pandemic levels despite weaker global GDP growth, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply conditions, Chinese investments, and the fight against climate change. The outlook suggests sustained high commodity prices in the coming years.