World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook, Oct 2024

The October 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook by the World Bank projects a decline in global commodity prices to a five-year low by 2025, primarily due to an anticipated oil surplus. The report forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, a surplus comparable only to those during the 2020 pandemic shutdowns and the 1998 oil-price collapse. This oversupply is expected to mitigate potential price increases, even amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite the projected decline, commodity prices are anticipated to remain 30% higher than the pre-pandemic average from 2015 to 2019. The report also highlights that food prices are expected to decrease by 9% in 2024 and an additional 4% in 2025, while energy prices are projected to decline by 6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. These trends may assist central banks in managing inflationary pressures.