United Nations – World Population Prospects, 2024

The United Nations' World Population Prospects for 2024 predicts that the global population will reach a peak of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to 10.2 billion by the end of the century. This represents a significant change from previous projections, with a higher likelihood (80%) of the world's population peaking within the current century. Factors contributing to this earlier peak include lower fertility levels in major countries like China. One in four people live in countries where the population has already peaked, with some countries experiencing declines in population size. Other countries are projected to see population growth until 2054, with some experiencing rapid increases. The trajectory of population change in these countries will play a crucial role in determining the global population peak.