McKinsey – The State of Grocery Retail Europe, 2024

In 2023, grocery sales in Europe increased by 8.6 percent, driven by food price inflation, downtrading, and a volume decline. However, in real terms, sales were actually 4.5 percent lower than in 2019 due to a decrease in the price per item. Inflation, while still a significant factor, decreased from a peak of 10 percent in 2022 to 3 percent by the end of 2023. Household budgets were affected by compressed real wages, leading to consumer trade-downs. Private label and discount retailers benefited from this trend, with private label sales increasing significantly. Supermarkets maintained their market share, with some achieving growth despite price pressures. Online sales remained stable overall, with varying performances by country. Towards the end of 2023, the grocery market showed signs of improvement, with downtrading and volume declines slowing down.