S&P Global – Retail and Restaurants Credit Outlook 2025

The report by S&P Global "Retail and Restaurants Credit Outlook 2025" explores the challenges and key assumptions affecting the retail sector. High prices persist despite lower input costs, with retailers strategically promoting to retain market share amidst geopolitical risks and tariffs that could spur inflation and trade wars. Consumers remain cautious, prioritizing essential spending and benefiting larger retailers with strong value propositions. The report highlights continued high household budget pressures and cost-cutting measures due to elevated input and labor costs, alongside consistent financial policies with potential M&A activities. Key risks include tariff-triggered inflation, rising inventory levels, and prolonged high interest rates impacting consumer spending and refinancing capabilities.