SBA – Swiss Banking Outlook, 2024

The experts predict further rate cuts by the SNB in 2024 and 2025, with expectations of a policy rate of 1.0% by the end of 2024 and possibly falling to 0.75% in 2025. The yield on ten-year government bonds is expected to reach 0.7% by the end of the year and remain relatively stable, with uncertainties about the forecast split between upside and downside risks. Exchange rates are expected to be steady, with the Swiss franc strengthening slightly against the euro and US dollar. The stock market is predicted to continue its positive trend, with the SMI expected to reach 12,470 points by the end of 2024, representing a 13% gain for the year. However, higher volatility is anticipated, and the momentum is likely to decrease in 2025, with a predicted gain of 3% to 12,850 points by the end of the year.