The document analyzes changes in the value-added tax (VAT) policy in China's gold market, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027.
The changes affect participants buying and selling gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). Participants withdrawing gold for investment purposes are not impacted, while those with non-investment purposes will face increased costs. The changes may affect demand for gold jewelry in China but could also stimulate innovation. Demand for bars and coins will not be directly impacted, but there may be a concentration of purchases through SGE members. The tax increase may affect the spread between the purchase and redemption price of jewelry, potentially reducing activity in jewelry recycling.