ADB – Asian Development Outlook, July 2024

The Asian Development Outlook for July 2024 shows that developing Asia experienced accelerated growth in the first quarter of the year due to strong domestic demand and robust export growth, particularly in the electronics sector. The region's growth forecast for 2024 has been revised up slightly to 5.0%, with a projection of 4.9% for 2025. East Asia's growth forecast for 2024 has been increased to 4.6% driven by strong exports of semiconductors and other goods, while Southeast Asia's growth forecast remains at 4.6% for 2024. South Asia's growth forecast remains steady at 6.3% for 2024, with a slight decrease to 6.5% for 2025. Inflation in developing Asia is expected to ease further to 2.9% in 2024 and stabilize at 3.0% in 2025. However, downside risks such as geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation could impact growth. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the United States election outcome and property market fragility in China pose further risks. Developments in major advanced economies like the United States and the Euro area also influence the outlook, with weak growth in the US and a mild technical recession in the Euro area in the second half of 2023. Japan's economy contracted in Q1 of 2024 due to production shutdowns in the automobile sector. Oil prices, which spiked due to conflict in the Middle East, have since fallen but remain relatively high.