Atradius - Economic Outlook, July 2023

The Atradius Economic Outlook for July 2023 provides an overview of the global economy and inflation trends. The report notes that the global economy is performing better than expected, and that a 'stagflation' scenario has been averted for now. The reopening of the Chinese economy after Covid, along with the resilience of the US and eurozone economies to high energy prices, are bringing relief to global growth in 2023. However, the report also notes that the timing of the end of military conflict is uncertain, and that tensions between Russia and the western coalition are expected to last beyond a ceasefire or peace deal. In terms of inflation, the report emphasizes the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored and containing wage increases to avoid a wage-price spiral. The report also notes that global growth in 2023 is forecast to be 2.2%, which is an improvement compared to what was expected six months ago. However, the picture for 2024 points in the reverse direction, with the full impact of monetary tightening and stickier inflation still to be felt. Overall, the report provides valuable insights for investors and businesses looking to navigate the current economic landscape, with a focus on inflation trends and global growth forecasts.