Bain - Recession Outlook, Feb 2023

Bain's Recession Outlook report for February 2023 highlights the current economic uncertainty in the world due to high inflation levels, geopolitical tensions, and a slowing post-COVID recovery. Economists predict a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the US, though the potential length and depth of such a recession remain uncertain. Inflation in the US and Europe continues to fall from its peak, but there is still uncertainty about how long it will take to return to central bank targets and how high interest rates might need to go to achieve that. Business leaders should prepare plans to handle a range of risks, including economic risks like inflation, recession, and capital costs, as well as geopolitical risks such as trade tensions, sanctions, and war. The report aims to provide a framing for the risk of recession and context against other recent recessions to help understand the variety of scenarios to plan for and what the latest data says.