BBVA – China Economic Outlook, Sep 2025

The main theme of the report concerns the economic prospects of China and the global economy as a whole.

Key findings include a forecast of a slowdown in global growth from 3.3% in 2024 to about 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Despite support from fiscal policy, less stringent monetary conditions, and an artificial intelligence boom, activity is likely to be affected by rising protectionism, immigration restrictions, persistent uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. It is also noted that tariffs may keep inflation in the US at around 3% in 2025-2026, while in Europe, inflation is forecast to be close to the target level.