BCA – Indonesia Economic Outlook: Inching Towards Higher Growth, Dec 2025
The global economy may become more favorable for Indonesia's growth due to declining interest rates affecting commodity prices, though uncertainties remain due to economic challenges in the US and China.
Indonesian exports in 2025 will be supported by tariff advantages, but a moderate balance of payments is expected in 2026. Household consumption and investment growth may continue in 2026, but GDP growth acceleration will remain modest and depend on government programs. Increased budgetary spending will require more debt issuance, which could impact Bank Indonesia's policy. The balance of payments position and narrowing rate differentials highlight the lack of improvements in the rupiah's fundamentals, which may limit Bank Indonesia's policy flexibility.
